Petrol Prices Set to Drop in October

South African motorists can look forward to some slight relief at the pumps in October as lower international oil prices and a stronger rand have reversed the earlier projections of petrol price hikes.

At the beginning of the month, data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) suggested that both grades of petrol would see an increase of around 20 cents per litre. However, the latest CEF update paints a more positive picture, showing smaller adjustments across different fuel types.

Expected October Adjustments

• Petrol 93 – no change
• Petrol 95 – increase of 8 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05% – decrease of 10 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.005% – decrease of 8 cents per litre

While these changes are modest, they are still better than the previously forecasted increases. For many drivers, though, the minimal reductions will hardly ease the ongoing strain of high fuel costs.

Why Prices Are Shifting

The improved outlook is mainly due to two factors:

1. Falling Global Oil Prices – A slowdown in economic growth worldwide has reduced demand for fuel. This comes as traders scale back their yearly forecasts following the impact of US tariffs. At the same time, OPEC has increased oil production by easing supply caps, which has further pressured prices downward.
2. Stronger Rand – The rand has managed to gain slightly against the US dollar, supported by a weaker dollar amid rising concerns about the United States’ fiscal stability.

What Could Change the Trend

Despite these positive developments, risks remain. Sanctions on Russia’s oil industry could disrupt the current balance of supply and demand. Since both China and India continue to import large volumes of Russian oil, any tightening of sanctions may force them to seek supplies elsewhere, potentially driving global prices upward again.

For now, however, South African motorists can take some comfort in the fact that October’s fuel adjustments are less severe than initially feared.

Related article: September 2025 Petrol Price: Sharp Diesel Drop, Minimal Petrol Changes