Mixed Forecasts and Global Pressures Shape SARB’s July 2025 Interest Rate Outlook
SARB Faces a Pivotal Decision Amid Global Uncertainty
South Africa’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is gearing up for one of its most closely watched interest rate decisions of the year. With economic signals pulling in different directions and the shadow of Trump-era US tariffs looming, all eyes are on the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) as it prepares to meet today, 31 July.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!Economists and financial institutions remain divided. Some argue for a cautious hold, while others see space for a 25 basis point (bp) cut, the third of the year. The split reflects a broader economic tension: low inflation on one hand and global market volatility on the other.
Will the SARB Cut or Hold? Predictions from Leading Banks
The July MPC meeting has drawn split forecasts from top South African banks. FNB and Investec are leaning toward a hold, citing heightened uncertainty around global tariffs and cautious international sentiment. Meanwhile, Nedbank and Bank of America (BofA) believe a 25bp cut is still on the cards due to tame inflation and weak domestic demand.
Global Trade Turbulence: Trump Tariffs Take Centre Stage
One of the major drivers of uncertainty this week is the looming imposition of 30% US tariffs on South African exports, set to take effect on 1 August. Dubbed “Liberation Day” measures by the Trump administration, these tariffs have introduced volatility in global markets, directly affecting South Africa’s trade dynamics. Minister of Trade Parks Tau has indicated that a pre-trade agreement with the US may be in development, but details remain scarce.
Inflation Is Tame—But for How Long?
Despite tariff pressures, inflation in South Africa remains subdued and consistently below the SARB’s 4.5% midpoint target. According to Nedbank, both headline and core inflation remain well-contained, with June’s inflation data showing no signs of underlying price stress. Bank of America supports this view, expecting inflation to rise moderately to 4.4% by Q4 2025.
Past Rate Cuts Set the Stage for Future Moves
The SARB has already delivered 100bp in cuts since late 2024, with the most recent ones being 25bp cuts in January and May 2025. While these moves were made in response to improving inflation and weak growth, May’s decision was split between 25bp and 50bp cuts—highlighting the cautious mood within the committee.
Why FNB Thinks September Could Be More Likely
FNB acknowledges a case for cutting rates in July, but its economists foresee a higher probability of easing in September. They argue that the global environment, especially the anticipated impact of US tariffs and weakening sentiment, makes a July cut risky. However, the bank believes that the relatively firm rand and tame inflation still provide space for a future move—just not immediately.
READ: Economists Predict Repo Rate Cut in September as Inflation Remains Low at 3%
Investec: Holding Steady Amid Global Headwinds
Investec shares a similar outlook to FNB. Their economists note that although there is space for another rate cut this year, the SARB is unlikely to make that move this week. The key reason? The Federal Reserve’s unchanged stance. With no rate adjustments from the Fed, the SARB must be cautious not to destabilise the rand, which could trigger imported inflation.
Nedbank and Bank of America: The Case for a Cut
In contrast, Nedbank and BofA maintain that economic indicators justify a July cut. They highlight weak domestic demand, low oil prices, and a relatively stable rand as factors that reduce inflation risks. Both institutions also argue that monetary policy remains restrictive and easing would provide relief to the sluggish economy without undermining inflation targets.
Rand Resilience and Commodity Tailwinds Offer Breathing Room
South Africa’s terms of trade have improved in recent months due to stronger precious metal prices. FNB notes that this, coupled with a weaker dollar, has helped stabilise the rand, allowing for more flexibility in policy decisions. Cheaper imports from Asia have also eased consumer price pressures, supporting the argument for a rate cut without fear of runaway inflation.
Monetary Policy Outlook: A Tightrope Walk Ahead
Whether the SARB cuts rates or holds this week, the path forward is likely to be cautious and data-driven. The July decision marks a key turning point as the Reserve Bank balances local inflation dynamics with global trade risks. While some economists expect only one more cut this year, the door remains open for further action depending on how the economy evolves—especially after 1 August when US tariffs take effect.
Also read: Will a Repo Rate Cut Boost South Africa’s Struggling Small Businesses?
