Table of contents
Eskom Meets 97% of South Africa’s Winter 2025 Power Demand with Improved Grid Stability
Eskom, South Africa’s primary electricity supplier, has confirmed a significant improvement in power supply reliability during the 2025 winter season. The utility met the country’s winter power demand over 97% of the time, marking progress compared to previous years plagued by frequent load shedding.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!Winter 2025 Outlook and Performance
Since 15 May 2025, South Africa has experienced no significant load shedding. Only 26 hours of planned outages were recorded from 1 April to 14 August 2025. Eskom’s available generation capacity currently stands at approximately 30,480 megawatts, surpassing the peak demand average of around 27,969 megawatts. This surplus capacity has allowed Eskom to meet electricity needs reliably.
Electricity demand has been met over 97% of the time during the winter season and financial year to date. Since 15 May 2025, South Africa has experienced no loadshedding, with only 26 hours recorded between 1 April and 14 August 2025.
With just over two weeks remaining in Eskom’s Winter Outlook period, the power system remains well-positioned to maintain stability and reliably meet demand.
The open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) load factor was 1.21% this week, down from the 5.99% recorded during the previous week (1 to 7 August 2025).
Operational Improvements
The reduction in unplanned outages to around 10,538 megawatts reflects Eskom’s enhanced maintenance and operational strategies. More than half of Eskom’s coal-fired power stations now operate with an Energy Availability Factor (EAF) above 70%, indicating increased plant efficiency and reliability. Several power stations are performing exceptionally well; three have EAFs exceeding 90%, while others operate above 60%.
From 1 April to 14 August 2025, diesel spend remains within the allocated budget.
As of today, unplanned outages stand at 10 538MW, highlighting progress in plant performance as a result of the ongoing implementation of the Generation Recovery Plan, aimed at improving performance and ensuring long-term energy security.
The available generation capacity currently stands at 30 480MW, while tonight’s electricity demand is expected to reach 27 969MW. The current capacity is sufficient to meet both today’s demand and anticipated requirements over the weekend.
Moreover, additional capacity has come online in 2025, including Koeberg Unit 2, Kusile Unit 6, and Medupi Unit 4, collectively adding thousands of megawatts to the national grid. Kusile Unit 6, intermittently supplying about 720 megawatts since March 2025, is expected to enter full commercial operation by September 2025, further strengthening power supply stability.
Eskom’s decreased reliance on open-cycle gas turbines has also reduced diesel consumption and cost, supporting environmental sustainability efforts without compromising supply reliability.
Key Performance Highlights
- Average unplanned outages over the past week reached 11,710 MW, slightly higher than the 11,635 MW recorded during the same period last year and up from the previous week; however, this remains 1,290 MW below the base case projection of 13,000 MW.
- Financial year-to-date, planned maintenance has averaged 5,207 MW weekly, representing 11.09% of total generation capacity, similar to the previous week but 0.8% higher than the same period last year.
- The year-to-date Energy Availability Factor (EAF), excluding the 720 MW contribution from Kusile Unit 6, increased to 60.3%, which is below the 63.15% recorded during the same period last year, mainly due to a 2.2% rise in unplanned maintenance compared to the prior year.
- Between 1 April and 14 August 2025, Eskom spent approximately R5.887 billion on fuel for Open-Cycle Gas Turbine (OCGT) plants, which generated 995.48 GWh of electricity, significantly higher than the 523.83 GWh generated in the same timeframe last year.
- The year-to-date load factor for OCGTs decreased slightly to 8.93%, reflecting a 0.42% reduction from the previous week, but remains notably higher than the 4.70% recorded during the same period last year.
Managing Constraints and Future Plans
When system constraints arise, Eskom effectively manages them by deploying emergency reserves during morning and evening peak periods. Targeted planned maintenance averaged approximately 5,193 megawatts weekly between April and mid-August 2025, helping sustain consistent energy output.
Between 1 April and 14 August 2025, the Unplanned Capability Loss Factor (UCLF), which reflects the percentage of generation capacity lost due to unplanned outages, further decreased to 28.14%. This represents a week-on-week improvement of approximately 0.21%, although it remains about 2.2% higher than the 25.98% recorded during the same period last year.
Eskom’s Generation Recovery Plan remains a pivotal strategy to address operational challenges, boost fleet performance, and ensure long-term energy security. The Unplanned Capability Loss Factor (UCLF), a key indicator of generation capacity lost to unexpected outages, improved week on week, standing at about 28.14% between April and August 2025 — a positive sign compared to recent years.
Why This Matters
Reliable electricity supply is crucial for South Africa’s economic growth and social development. Eskom’s improved winter performance alleviates pressure from previously frequent load shedding, providing relief to households, businesses, and critical industries. Consistently stable power availability fosters greater investor confidence and economic stability.
Reducing unplanned outages and increasing generation capacity contribute not only to a more stable and affordable energy system, but also to environmental commitments, as Eskom lessens its diesel fuel consumption. The positive trend supports South Africa’s broader goals of sustainable development and economic resilience.
Learn how this massive spend aims to stabilise power supply and what it means for South Africa’s energy future. Eskom Spends Nearly R6 Billion on Diesel to Prevent Winter Load Shedding. Click here to find out more.
Long-Term Advancements
With ongoing investments, Eskom is well-positioned for continued stability as demand patterns evolve through the year. Projects such as the upcoming full commercial operation of Kusile Unit 6 and the return of Medupi Unit 4 will further bolster the electricity supply. Scheduled maintenance and strategic reserve management provide flexibility to meet peaks without resorting to rolling blackouts.
The winter of 2025 has showcased Eskom’s strengthened ability to meet demand reliably and sustainably, highlighting the progress made on the path to a more secure power future for South Africa.
