Eskom’s Winter Performance: Stable Power System Amidst Ongoing Challenges
As South Africa faces the peak winter period of 2025, Eskom, the country’s state-owned power utility, has managed to maintain a relatively stable power supply despite several ongoing challenges. Since mid-May 2025, Eskom has successfully avoided implementing load shedding, with only 26 hours of load shedding recorded between April 1 and July 10, 2025. This improved performance is attributed to Eskom’s enhanced Energy Availability Factor (EAF). The factor has remained between 60% and 63% during the winter months, indicating a better proportion of generation capacity online.
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Stable Power System Amidst Challenges
However, unplanned outages continue to impact Eskom’s operations. By mid-July 2025, there was a loss of around 13,380MW. Despite this, Eskom assures the public that it has sufficient generation capacity, with over 30,000MW available. This is compared to an expected winter peak demand of around 28,346MW. This availability ensures that Eskom can meet the country’s power needs during the colder months.
Impact of Koeberg Unit 1 Delays
One significant factor affecting Eskom’s winter supply is the delay in the return of Koeberg Unit 1. Initially, it was scheduled to return to service in July 2025. However, the unit’s return has been postponed until August due to additional maintenance work required on the steam generator. While this delay affects Eskom’s planned power generation, the utility has assured the public that the Winter Outlook, which was published in May 2025, remains accurate. Eskom’s forecast suggests that, as long as unplanned outages remain below 13,000MW, there will be no load shedding events during winter.
Koeberg Units 1 and 2, which collectively produce 1,860MW (approximately 5% of South Africa’s electricity supply), have staggered maintenance schedules. This prevents simultaneous downtime and ensures that power system stability is maintained. This is true even when one unit is offline for servicing.
Generation Capacity and Maintenance Management
Eskom continues to manage power generation with an eye on long-term fleet reliability. The successful return to service of Medupi Power Station’s Unit 4 on July 6, 2025, has added 800MW to the grid. Additionally, other units that are returning to service are expected to contribute up to 3,470MW of additional generating capacity by mid-July 2025. These efforts help stabilize supply and ensure that Eskom can meet peak demand periods effectively.
However, planned maintenance levels in early July 2025 averaged 3,500MW. This reduces short-term capacity. Eskom emphasizes the importance of these maintenance efforts, as they contribute to the long-term reliability of the power fleet and ensure regulatory compliance. To manage system constraints, Eskom relies on emergency reserves during peak demand hours in the morning and evening.
Ongoing Initiatives and Public Messaging
The Generation Recovery Plan remains a cornerstone of Eskom’s strategy to enhance the resilience of the power system. This plan includes initiatives to improve plant performance, minimize unplanned breakdowns, and ensure long-term energy availability. Eskom also focuses on improving public awareness. They aim to reduce activities like illegal connections or electricity theft, which could compromise power supply security during critical times.
Eskom spokespersons regularly reiterate that despite ongoing challenges, South Africa’s power system has shown resilience in meeting winter demand. Eskom continues to closely monitor the situation and is prepared to mitigate any risks as the winter period progresses.
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System Stability
Eskom’s ability to manage the national power supply during South Africa’s demanding winter months has been a critical focus. While unplanned outages continue to pose challenges, the utility has demonstrated significant progress in meeting power demand. The continued return of key generation units, such as Medupi Unit 4, and the commitment to planned maintenance are essential components of Eskom’s strategy. These efforts maintain power system stability. The utility’s proactive approach ensures that it remains prepared to navigate any further disruptions while delivering power to millions of South Africans.
