South African motorists may face another financial blow in October as early indicators show petrol prices are heading for an increase, while diesel users could see some relief.
At the start of September, data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) revealed that petrol is experiencing a notable under-recovery, leaving it vulnerable to price hikes next month. Current projections point to an under-recovery of between 19 and 26 cents per litre for petrol. Diesel, on the other hand, is showing an over-recovery of around 22 cents per litre, suggesting a possible price drop.
Petrol Under Pressure
The weakness in petrol recoveries is being driven largely by shifts in global product prices, which track international oil movements. Although oil is trading relatively flat at just under $67 a barrel, it remains slightly higher than August’s average of around $66.
The rand/dollar exchange rate has offered some support, contributing about 3 cents per litre to an over-recovery. However, this has not been enough to offset the petrol deficit.
Based on the opening September figures, motorists could be looking at:
- Petrol 93: ↑ 19 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: ↑ 26 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): ↓ 22 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): ↓ 22 cents per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: ↓ 14 cents per litre
Also read: Top 5 Driving Tips to Save Petrol
Oil and Rand Uncertainty
Analysts caution that these early projections are not set in stone, with more than three weeks left for global and local factors to influence the final outcome.
Oil markets remain fragile. Bloomberg reports that crude could decline further due to rising supply and sluggish demand, with OPEC+ expected to deliberate another output increase in its upcoming 7 September meeting. Brent crude has already shed 11% in value this year, underscoring the uncertainty in the market.
The rand, meanwhile, has been volatile. While it briefly weakened against the US dollar after disappointing US job data, it recovered to around R17.70/$ by Friday thanks to stronger foreign reserves. Still, local sentiment appears fragile, with Ipsos data showing that optimism following the formation of the Government of National Unity in 2024 is fading amid coalition tensions.
For now, the rand has been moving within a relatively stable R17.50–R17.70/$ band, but analysts warn that any sudden shift back towards R18/$ or beyond would quickly erase the currency’s supportive effect on fuel prices.
What It Means for Motorists
If current trends persist, South Africans could be paying more for petrol in October, while businesses reliant on diesel might benefit from reduced operating costs. However, both oil and currency factors remain in flux, leaving the outlook uncertain.
Motorists are advised to brace for potential increases, but the final decision will rest on how global oil supply-demand dynamics and the rand’s performance play out over the rest of September.
Related article: The Official Petrol Price for September 2025
