South African motorists could soon breathe a sigh of relief as petrol and diesel prices are expected to drop in November 2025. This comes as global oil prices slide towards $60 a barrel, marking the biggest losing streak since March and boosting local fuel price recoveries.
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According to Bloomberg’s market analysis, the sharp decline in oil prices is being driven by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. This has raised fears of another trade war. Analysts warn that renewed friction between the two largest crude consumers could slow global economic growth and significantly impact energy demand.
Although a temporary truce was declared earlier this year, China recently tightened its grip on rare-earth mineral exports critical for industries like technology, automotive, and defence. The move has angered Washington, which accuses Beijing of escalating tensions. China, in turn, blames the US for introducing new restrictive measures following talks in Madrid.
This geopolitical standoff has sent ripples through oil markets, with investors anticipating lower demand. At the same time, global oil production is increasing, with projections of a 20% oversupply in 2026. As a result, oil prices have fallen 3% this week and nearly 20% since January.
Over-Recoveries Point to Fuel Price Cuts
The weakening of global oil prices has led to over-recoveries of between 16 cents and 50 cents per litre locally. This is a significant improvement compared to September. Market watchers expect this downward trend to continue, potentially pushing prices even lower in the coming months.
South Africa, which imports oil and pays in dollars, relies heavily on the rand/dollar exchange rate. Despite slight weakness this week, the rand remains stronger compared to September. Analysts believe the local currency could strengthen further as commodity prices like gold and platinum rise.
Expected November Price Adjustments
Based on mid-month estimates, the following fuel price changes are expected in November 2025:
- Petrol 93: decrease of 61 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: decrease of 58 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): decrease of 29 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): decrease of 29 cents per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: decrease of 14 cents per litre
While petrol is expected to see a more significant cut, diesel is also trending lower. This will bring welcome relief for businesses and transport operators.
Rand Remains Key to Price Outlook
The rand has traded between R17.07 and R17.50 to the US dollar in October, fluctuating in response to global market sentiment. With US rate cut speculation, rising geopolitical tensions, and the prolonged US government shutdown, the local currency remains vulnerable.
However, strong trade conditions and higher precious metal prices could help the rand regain strength, potentially enhancing fuel price cuts in the coming months.
If oil prices continue their downward trajectory and the rand holds steady, motorists may benefit from further reductions before the end of the year.
Related article: Petrol Price Drop November 2025: Big Savings at the Pump
