South Africa Interest Rates have become a central topic for consumers, economists, and businesses alike. With inflation stabilising and the Reserve Bank making a surprise cut in July, many are asking: Will repo cuts continue?
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!Repo Rate Cut in July: A Turning Point?
On 31 July 2025, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) trimmed the repo rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 7.00%. This was the first rate cut since the easing cycle began last September.
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Inflation Trends: Stable but Still Above Target
Although consumer price inflation eased to 3.0% in June, August figures are expected to remain around 3.5%, according to reports. This keeps inflation above the SARB’s newly signalled 3% preferred anchor, even though it’s still within the official 3-6% target band.
Economists Divided on Future Cuts
Analysts and economists are split on whether the easing will continue. The Bureau for Economic Research (BER) believes rates will stay on hold in the near term. Tracey-Lee Solomon from BER says the SARB will likely want stronger evidence that inflation can consistently hold near 3%.
Nedbank’s Forecast: Pause Before Further Moves
Nedbank economists Nicky Weimar and Johannes Khosa expect a pause in the rate-cutting cycle. They note that temporary inflation drivers, like rising meat and electricity prices, need to stabilise before further easing can be considered.
“The SARB would need time to assess the nature of the current inflation cycle,” says Nedbank’s Economic Unit.
FNB’s Longer-Term View on South Africa Interest Rates
FNB economists expect one more cut by the end of 2025 and further easing in 2026. Their July projections see rates settling just below 6% by 2027, assuming inflation continues to moderate.
SARB’s Stance: Cautious but Flexible
SARB Governor Lesetja Kganyago has made it clear that the Reserve Bank prefers inflation at 3%. The SARB will act cautiously, guided by forward-looking data and not political pressure.
“We welcome the recent moderation in inflation expectations and would like to see expectations fall further,” Kganyago said in July.
Will Repo Cuts Continue? Experts Say: Not Immediately
While the outlook for South Africa Interest Rates is slightly dovish, most experts believe further repo cuts will be delayed. Rising food and utility costs, global oil prices, and rand volatility all pose upside risks to inflation.
External Pressures Also Play a Role
Changes in US trade policy and global market uncertainty may also influence SARB’s decisions. Economists agree the Bank will adopt a meeting-by-meeting approach rather than commit to a defined path.
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Consumer Impact: What This Means for You
Consumers may not see immediate relief. Interest on loans, credit, and mortgages will remain relatively high until further rate cuts are confirmed. However, the July rate cut could mark the beginning of a gradual decline, if conditions allow.
What to Watch: Inflation, Rand, and Utilities
Key indicators to monitor include meat and fuel prices, municipal tariff hikes, and exchange rate trends. If these stabilise, the SARB may be in a position to ease again.
Expect Caution, Not Aggression
To answer the question Will Repo Cuts Continue?, not right away. While South Africa Interest Rates may ease further down the line, any action will be cautious and highly data-dependent.
