Higher Education Minister Buti Manamela has warned that only half of the nearly one million matric pupils writing exams this year will secure spaces in tertiary institutions in 2026. He stressed that South Africa’s future cannot rely solely on academic degrees but must also focus on hands-on skills that keep the economy running.
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Preparation for 2026: A Stretched System
Speaking in Pretoria, Manamela outlined how the Department of Higher Education and Training is preparing for the next academic year. The department is prioritising reliable funding, simple application processes, campus safety, and the smooth start of teaching and learning.
But pressure on the system is mounting. Universities, TVET colleges, CET colleges, and SETAs face growing demand as more young people pass matric each year.
“The reality is that about 850,000 young people will be sitting for exams. If they all pass, the system can only absorb half,” Manamela said. “Over the next three months, we must find solutions for the other half. Some will look for jobs, some may take a gap year, and others will explore alternatives — but we need a plan for them. That’s a massive question we must answer soon.”
Who Gets In: The Numbers
In 2026, public universities will admit around 235,000 first-year students. TVET colleges will create roughly 170,000 spaces, while CET colleges will add another 120,000. Together, that makes 525,000 new admissions — just enough for half of the matric cohort.
This leaves nearly half of successful learners without formal tertiary spaces. For Manamela, this cannot become a numbers game. “We’ve seen progress in access, but dropout rates, especially in the first year, remain high. We’re now pushing institutions to make throughput and success rates as transparent as matric results,” he said.
Beyond Degrees: The Urgency for Skills and Artisans
Manamela drove home his point: South Africa needs artisans as much as it needs academics. “Universities will give us the professionals, but the future of the country is artisans, apprentices and people with skills who can bricklay, who can do plumbing and welding.”
The construction sector illustrates the problem. Demand is strong, but a shortage of skilled workers delays projects and drives up costs. By investing in technical training, the government hopes to create cheaper, faster routes to employment while easing the country’s skills deficit.
“That’s where we need to go,” Manamela said. “It’s cheaper, and it gives young people a better chance of employment.”
Globally, economies with strong vocational bases adapt more quickly to industrial growth and infrastructure needs. South Africa, he argued, must catch up.
Funding the Future: NSFAS at a Crossroads
Money remains the biggest barrier. Manamela confirmed that NSFAS applications for 2026 will open from 16 September to 15 November, warning there will be no extensions.
The department has reallocated R13.3 billion to plug the 2025 shortfall, unblocking registrations for 34,000 students and helping 15,000 with second-semester studies.
Still, NSFAS faces overwhelming demand. It requires R75 billion annually to keep pace with the number of eligible students, rising living costs, and broader eligibility rules. “Later this year, we’ll announce reforms for sustainable NSFAS funding,” Manamela promised.
A “War Room” for Tertiary Education
To strengthen oversight, Manamela unveiled plans for a tertiary education war room. He promised swift decision-making rather than endless meetings.
“Through the war room, we’ll tackle NSFAS allowances, accreditation of student accommodation, exam certificate finalisation, and dispute resolution that otherwise disrupt learning,” he said.
The war room will also act as an early-warning system, flagging potential protests or disruptions before they spiral.
Why It Matters for Gauteng
For Gauteng, South Africa’s economic hub, education and skills shortages carry a heavy price. Johannesburg, Tshwane, and Ekurhuleni need both graduates and artisans to sustain industries, services, and infrastructure.
Civil society warns that ignoring the shortage of tertiary spaces will deepen inequality. But they also stress the need for a bigger pool of skilled workers in construction, energy, transport, and services.
“HIV, unemployment, crime — all of these link back to education and skills,” said a Gauteng youth activist. “If we don’t provide young people with real opportunities and practical training, we risk losing a generation to poverty and despair.”
Turning Challenges Into Opportunities
Manamela’s warning is sobering: the higher education system cannot absorb every matriculant. But his solution is equally clear — balance academic opportunities with artisan training and vocational pathways.
The call is urgent: support local initiatives that expand hands-on training, encourage learners to explore vocational routes, and demand that the government deliver transparent funding and timely interventions.
South Africa’s next generation of workers will not be judged only by degrees. They will be builders, designers, technicians, and innovators who can keep the economy moving. The challenge now is ensuring every young person leaves school with a pathway to contribute, succeed, and thrive.
